Gold recyclingSupply refers to the quantity of existing gold that re enters the supply channels defined in the report. It can change the total quarterly supply, but it does not equal the new gold produced by the mine. When reading changes, it is necessary to separate recycled gold, mineral gold, and producer net hedging, while checking quarterly, regional, and methodological standards.

The position of recycling supply in the total supply table

The quarterly supply chapter of the World Gold Council lists mineral gold, producer net hedging, and recycled gold as supply sub items. The total supply needs to be added up according to the report definition, and the net hedging items may be negative, so not all projects can be understood as adding physical production.

When the amount of recovered gold increases, the total supply may not necessarily increase by the same amount, as mineral gold or net hedging may change in the opposite direction. When looking at the growth rate of a certain sub item in the news, it is best to also check the overall chart to avoid local changes being written as the supply trend of the entire market.

The rise in gold prices does not guarantee an increase in recovery

Higher prices may increase the willingness of holders to sell their old gold, but actual recycling is also affected by local currency prices, judgments about future gold prices, residents' capital needs, and processing capabilities. Quarterly reports have also indicated that specific observations are needed between short-term price changes, regional differences, and recycling activities.

The high price background and the increase in recycling volume are two different things. The year-on-year increase in the price of gold dollars does not necessarily mean that the local recycling prices in all regions have increased by the same amount in the current quarter, nor does it mean that holders are immediately willing to sell. Without regional data, it cannot be directly said that residents of a certain country are concentrated in selling.

Replacing old with new does not always count as new recycling

The sale, exchange, second-hand transfer, and melting of old jewelry may involve different treatments before entering the supply statistics. When discussing the Indian market in the second quarter supply report, it was pointed out that the net impact of jewelry trade in without supply is not included in the recycling data.

This does not mean that all cash transactions can be excluded according to the same rules. The specific products, businesses, and statistical scope still need to be compared with the reporting methods. When reading recycling news, it is not enough to equate the transaction amount or total weight with the quarterly recycling supply based solely on the active trading of old gold in the store.

Example of hypothetical offsetting of sub items

Assuming that mineral gold increases by 20 tons, recycled gold decreases by 15 tons, and the net hedging contribution of producers decreases by another 5 tons in a quarter. When other conditions remain unchanged and the sub item caliber is comparable, the total supply change is zero. Looking solely at mineral gold may lead to the misconception that there has been a significant increase in supply; Looking solely at the amount of recycled gold may lead to a misjudgment of a decrease in the total amount.

This example is not a real quarterly statistic. In actual comparison, it is necessary to calculate year-on-year and month on month separately: year-on-year corresponds to the same quarter of the previous year, and month on month corresponds to the previous quarter. Due to different seasonal factors, the two results may differ, and it is not appropriate to write one increase as the other.

The changes in recycling in different regions may also offset each other. To explain the global total, first look at the absolute tonnage contributed by each region, and then look at their respective increase or decrease ratios. The high growth rate of small markets may not necessarily contribute more than the small changes in large markets, and the impact cannot be ranked solely by percentage size.

Changes in supply and demand cannot directly derive short-term prices

Quarterly supply reports measure the industry background over a longer period of time; The intraday gold price also involves interest rates, exchange rates, expectations, and trading activities. The report release date is also later than the end of the statistical period, and quarterly quantity changes cannot be considered as new transactions on the day of release.

Wmax · 威马证券's investment classroom provides product and news analysis knowledge, exclusive insights provide market observations, and readers can understand industry supply and demand and short-term pricing separately. The thematic interpretation in industry news is suitable for further reading, but the original definition should be returned to the explanation of supply and demand statistics methods for verification.

这不意味着所有旧金交易都可以按同一规则排除。具体产品、业务和统计范围仍要对照报告方法。阅读回收新闻时，不能仅凭门店旧金交易活跃，就把成交金额或总重量等同于季度回收供给。

分项相互抵消的假设算例

假设一个季度矿产金增加20吨、回收金减少15吨、生产商净套保贡献再减少5吨。在其他条件不变、且分项口径可比时，总供应变化为零。单看矿产金，会误认为供应明显增加；单看回收金，又可能误判总量下降。

这个例子不是真实季度统计。实际比较还需要分别计算同比与环比：同比对应上年同季，环比对应上一季度。季节因素不同，两项结果可能不同，不宜把一种增幅写成另一种。

不同地区的回收变化也可能互相抵消。若要解释全球总量，先看地区贡献的绝对吨数，再看各自增减比例。小市场的高增幅未必比大市场的小幅变化贡献更多，不能仅按百分比大小排列影响。

供需变化不能直接推导短线价格

季度供应报告衡量较长时间的行业背景；日内金价还涉及利率、汇率、预期和交易活动。报告发布日也晚于统计期末，不能把季度数量变化当成发布当天的新成交。

Wmax · 威马证券的投资课堂提供产品和消息分析知识，独家观点提供行情观察，读者可分别理解行业供需与短线定价。行业新闻中的主题解读适合继续阅读，但原始定义应回到供需统计方法说明核对。